China | Fork in the road
中国 | 岔路口
China’s super-smart Tesla-killers
中国的超级智能特斯拉杀手
Carmakers are pushing for autonomous driving’s “ChatGPT moment”
汽车制造商正推动自动驾驶迎来“ChatGPT 时刻”
A Baidu Inc. driverless robotaxi in Wuhan, China
Sitting in his spacious office in the southern city of Guangzhou, He Xiaopeng is in an expansive mood. The boss of Xpeng, a Chinese electric-vehicle (ev) maker that is one of the frontrunners in the self-driving tech race, says that autonomous driving is on the cusp of a “Chatgpt moment”. He points to the instant at the end of 2022 when, after years of development, Openai’s chatbot pushed generative artificial intelligence from the realm of researchers into the mainstream.
坐在广州南部宽敞的办公室里，小鹏汽车的掌门人何小鹏情绪高昂。作为中国领先的电动汽车制造商，小鹏汽车在自动驾驶技术竞赛中处于领先地位。何小鹏认为，自动驾驶技术正处于一个“ChatGPT 时刻”的临界点。他回忆起2022 年底，OpenAI 的聊天机器人经过多年发展，将生成式人工智能从研究领域推向了大众视野，成为了一个划时代的时刻。
Mr He says this breakthrough moment is likely to happen later this year. China, whose autonomous-driving development he describes as “the fastest in the world”, is likely to be a driving force. American drivers do not see the technology as a crucial feature in the way China’s tech-savvy ev buyers already do, he notes.
何小鹏表示，这一突破性时刻很可能在今年晚些时候到来。他认为中国的自动驾驶发展是“全球最快的”，并且很可能成为推动这一趋势的主要力量。他指出，与中国精通科技的电动汽车买家不同，美国驾驶员尚未将这项技术视为关键特性。
On a test drive in an Xpeng p7+ sedan through the bustling metropolis, your correspondent could see the reasons for his optimism. The car overtook a three-wheeled noodle cart, avoided scooters speeding the wrong way down the street and nailed a u-turn without intervention from humans. But the Xpeng driver did need to take control a few times during the twenty-minute ride. Improving the technology so that drivers barely have to touch the wheel on busy city streets is crucial to winning them over, says Mr He.
在一次试驾小鹏 P7+ 轿车穿越繁华都市的过程中，记者亲身体验到了何小鹏乐观的原因。车辆超越了三轮面摊，避开了逆向行驶的电动自行车，并在没有任何人为干预的情况下漂亮地完成了U 型转弯。然而，在20 分钟的试驾过程中，小鹏汽车的驾驶员确实需要几次接管车辆。何小鹏表示，提升技术，让驾驶员在繁忙的城市街道上几乎无需触碰方向盘，是赢得他们青睐的关键。
Xpeng, like many of its rivals, is focused on the next front in a global battle. China’s carmakers made evs better and more cheaply than the rest of the world and now want to do the same for autonomous vehicles (av). Though Chinese, American and European firms are still grappling over whose technology will dominate, China is racing ahead in deployment at scale.
与众多竞争对手一样，小鹏汽车正专注于全球竞争的下一个焦点。中国的汽车制造商在电动汽车（EV）领域做得比世界其他地区更好、更便宜，现在他们希望在自动驾驶汽车（AV）领域也能做到这一点。尽管中国、美国和欧洲的公司仍在争夺技术主导地位，但中国正在大规模部署方面迅速领先。
In the world of autonomous driving, there are two paths to commercial deployment: robotaxis and advanced driver-assistance systems (adas). Both are labelled by global industry standards from level zero (no automation) to level five (full automation without restrictions). l5 is far off because of technological, commercial and regulatory challenges, but cars at lower levels of autonomy are already on the streets.
在自动驾驶领域，商业化部署有两条路径：无人驾驶出租车（robotaxis
）和高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）。两者都按照全球行业标准进行分级，从0 级（无自动化）到5 级（完全自动化，无限制）。由于技术、商业和监管方面的挑战，L5 级别仍然遥不可及，但较低级别的自动驾驶汽车已经行驶在道路上。
China’s robotaxi experiment is the world’s biggest. Robotaxis, which can be hailed through a fleet operator’s app, are all l4, meaning they do not need a driver in the car but can operate only within approved areas. In China, five companies run more than 2,300 robotaxis, according to Bernstein, a research firm. Baidu leads with driverless fleets operating in 11 cities.
中国的无人驾驶出租车实验是世界上最大的。这些可以通过运营商的应用程序来呼叫的无人驾驶出租车都是 L4 级别的，这意味着车内不需要驾驶员，但只能在批准的区域内运行。研究公司伯恩斯坦的数据显示，在中国，有5 家公司运营着超过2300 辆无人驾驶出租车。百度以其在11 个城市运营的无人驾驶车队处于领先地位。
Waymo, America’s only fare-collecting robotaxi firm, runs over 700 cars in San Francisco, Phoenix and Los Angeles. Tesla, which has not fulfilled promises made over a decade to build driverless avs, claims it will soon launch a robotaxi service.
美国的 Waymo 是唯一一家收取费用的无人驾驶出租车公司，在旧金山、凤凰城和洛杉矶运营着超过700 辆汽车。而特斯拉，尽管十多年来一直未能兑现其制造无人驾驶汽车的承诺，但声称即将推出无人驾驶出租车服务。
Though Chinese robotaxis cost less than those made elsewhere, analysts say they are still prohibitively expensive for mass production, and operators are years away from breaking even. After investing more than $10bn in robotaxis, in December General Motors axed that loss-making project to focus on mass-produced cars with adas instead.
尽管中国制造的无人驾驶出租车成本低于其他国家，但分析师表示，它们对于大规模生产而言仍然过于昂贵，运营商距离实现盈亏平衡还需要数年时间。在投资超过 100
亿美元用于无人驾驶出租车项目后，通用汽车在12 月取消了该亏损项目，转而专注于配备ADAS 的量产汽车。
adas is more about aiding drivers than replacing them. Everyone is watching to see when Chinese regulators will allow a move from l2, whereby cars can steer, accelerate and brake on their own with a human in the car, to l3, which requires no hands or eyes on the road in certain situations. The widespread adoption of l3 would transform transport. Drivers could legally check emails or watch films during tedious commutes, as long as they sit ready to take over if the car requests.
ADAS 更多的是为了辅助驾驶员，而不是取代他们。每个人都在关注中国监管机构何时会允许从L2 级别过渡到L3 级别。在L2 级别下，车辆可以在车内有人的情况下自行转向、加速和刹车；而L3 级别则要求在特定情况下驾驶员可以无需手和眼睛的参与。L3 的广泛应用将彻底改变交通运输。在枯燥的通勤过程中，只要驾驶员做好准备在车辆发出请求时接管，他们就可以合法地查看电子邮件或观看电影。... Chart: The Economist 图表：《经济学人》
China has dominated the rollout of adas, too. As the world’s largest auto market, it has churned out more l2 cars than any other country. These cars, including the more advanced l2+ subset, still require the driver to keep hands on the wheel and eyes on the road, but are gearing up for the shift to l3. Counterpoint, a research firm, in June forecast l3-capable car sales in China to be four times that of either North America or Europe in 2026, with more than 1m on Chinese roads by then. By 2040, 90% of all car sales in China will be avs of l3 or above, compared with nearly 80% in Europe and about 65% in America, reckons Goldman Sachs, a bank (see chart).
中国在 ADAS 的推广方面也占据了主导地位。作为全球最大的汽车市场，中国生产的L2 级别汽车数量超过任何其他国家。这些车辆，包括更高级的L2+
子集，仍然要求驾驶员将手放在方向盘上，眼睛注视前方道路，但正在为向L3 的转变做准备。研究公司Counterpoint 在6 月预测，到2026 年，中国具备L3 能力的汽车销量将是北美或欧洲的四倍，届时中国道路上将有超过100 万辆此类车辆。高盛银行估计，到2040 年，中国汽车销售中90% 将是L3 或更高级别的自动驾驶汽车，而欧洲接近80%，美国约为65%（见图表）。
Intense competition helped China achieve its lead. In America and Europe, sophisticated adas had been limited to premium models, though the tech is becoming more common now. But in the cut-throat Chinese market, carmakers were quick to include it as standard in order to compete, and many customers are now unwilling to pay for it. byd, the world’s biggest ev maker, last month said even its cars priced under $10,000 would come with free adas that can get on and off motorways, change lanes, and park by itself. Though more advanced than byd’s entry-level system, Tesla’s self-driving software costs $8,800 on top of the cost of the car. Analysts hailed byd’s move as the “democratisation” of autonomous tech. Competition among suppliers is also sharp. Hesai, which makes lidar sensors that help self-driving cars perceive the world, has slashed prices from thousands of dollars five years ago to about $200.
激烈的竞争助力中国取得了领先地位。在美国和欧洲，先进的 ADAS 曾仅限于高端车型，但这项技术现在正变得越来越普遍。但在竞争激烈的中国市场，汽车制造商迅速将其作为标准配置纳入，以增强竞争力，许多消费者现在不愿意为此支付额外费用。全球最大的电动汽车制造商比亚迪上个月表示，即使是售价低于1 万美元的汽车也将配备免费的ADAS
，该系统可以上下高速公路、变换车道并自动泊车。虽然比特斯拉的入门级系统更先进，但特斯拉的自动驾驶软件在车价之外还需要额外支付8800 美元。分析师称赞比亚迪的举动是自动驾驶技术的“民主化”。供应商之间的竞争也非常激烈。禾赛科技生产帮助自动驾驶汽车感知世界的激光雷达传感器，已将价格从5 年前的数千美元大幅降至约200 美元。
Roadblocks ahead
前方路障
Regulation is the biggest roadblock. America’s industry, hobbled by safety investigations in recent years, has called on its government to develop a national framework for av development. “Federal inaction has created regulatory uncertainty,” a lobby group wrote to the Department of Transportation in January, noting that Chinese competitors have benefited from their government’s support. American self-driving carmakers and suppliers hope Tesla’s founder, Elon Musk, who has called for fewer barriers to av deployment, will be a boon to the industry in his new position advising President Donald Trump. Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai was a catalyst for the growth of China’s ev industry. Its Full Self-Driving software, which relies on cameras and an ai model but still requires human supervision as an l2 system, has also spurred China’s av development.
监管是最大的障碍。近年来，由于安全调查而受到阻碍的美国汽车行业呼吁其政府制定一个国家层面的自动驾驶发展框架。“联邦政府的不作为造成了监管上的不确定性，”一个游说团体1 月份致函交通部时写道，并指出中国的竞争对手已经从其政府的支持中受益。美国的自动驾驶汽车制造商和供应商希望特斯拉的创始人埃隆·马斯克能够成为该行业的福音。马斯克一直呼吁减少自动驾驶部署的障碍，并且他已担任唐纳德·特朗普总统的顾问。特斯拉在上海的超级工厂是中国电动汽车产业增长的催化剂。它的完全自动驾驶软件依赖于摄像头和人工智能模型，但作为L2 系统仍然需要人工监督，这也推动了中国自动驾驶汽车的发展。
With an eye to dominating the global av market, xxx have paved the way for the rollout to accelerate. In 2020 the state planner set a goal for l3 mass production by this year. In June, the government gave nine automakers approval to test l3 systems on public roads. In October, the industry minister vowed to speed up rule-making. Competing local and regional governments provided permissive regulation and billions of dollars in subsidies for r&d, computing power and infrastructure investment that makes streets easier for driverless cars to navigate. At China’s annual parliamentary meeting this month, Lei Jun, boss of Xiaomi, a smartphone maker that launched a popular ev, urged the government to allow self-driving functions by 2026.
着眼于主导全球自动驾驶汽车市场，xxx已经为加速推广铺平了道路。2020 年，国家计划部门设定了到今年实现L3 级别大规模生产的目标。今年6 月，政府批准了9 家汽车制造商在公共道路上测试L3 系统。10 月，工业部长承诺加快规则制定。相互竞争的地方和区域政府提供了宽松的监管环境，并为研发、计算能力和基础设施投资提供了数十亿美元的补贴，这使得无人驾驶汽车更容易在街道上行驶。在本月举行的中国年度议会会议上，小米（一家智能手机制造商，推出了广受欢迎的电动汽车）的负责人雷军敦促政府在2026 年之前允许自动驾驶功能。
Some countries have legislated for higher levels of autonomy but have few firms making cars with those capabilities. Mercedes received approval to sell l3 cars in Germany and in the states of California and Nevada, allowing drivers to go hands-off, eyes-off below certain speed limits on approved highways. Though China only allows l2, many of its carmakers already advertise “l2.9” systems to show their tech is edging towards l3. Carmakers elsewhere had been less keen to invest in l3, which they saw as unprofitable, says Yale Zhang of Automotive Foresight, a consultancy. In China, by contrast, he says, “as soon as l3 is approved, that will be revolutionary and change the state of driving.”
一些国家已经立法支持更高级别的自动驾驶，但很少有公司制造具备这些功能的汽车。梅赛德斯获得了在德国以及美国的加利福尼亚州和内华达州销售 L3 级别汽车的许可，允许驾驶员在批准的高速公路上以低于特定速度限制的速度行驶时，可以将手和视线移开。尽管中国只允许L2 级别，但许多汽车制造商已经在宣传“L2.9”系统，以表明他们的技术正在接近L3。咨询公司Automotive Foresight
的Yale Zhang 表示，其他地方的汽车制造商不太愿意投资L3，因为他们认为L3 无利可图。相比之下，他说：“在中国，一旦L3 获得批准，那将是革命性的，将彻底改变驾驶状态。”
That potential shift raises questions about safety and liability. In January, Xiaomi recalled 31,000 of its su7 evs following several hundred complaints of crashes when the sedans tried to park themselves. Once China approves l3, hundreds of thousands of similar cars will be navigating more complex roads, at higher speeds than parking. What happens if a driver turns self-driving features on and the car kills someone? Experts say l3 shifts responsibility to automakers. Mercedes has assumed liability for its l3 system, when used as intended. But there are many details that regulators, carmakers, and insurers need to resolve.
这种潜在的转变引发了关于安全和责任的问题。今年 1 月，小米召回了31000 辆SU7 电动汽车，此前有数百起投诉称，这些轿车在尝试自动泊车时发生碰撞。一旦中国批准L3 级别，数十万辆类似的汽车将以比停车更高的速度在更复杂的道路上行驶。如果驾驶员开启自动驾驶功能，而汽车撞死了人会发生什么？专家表示，L3 将责任转移给了汽车制造商。梅赛德斯已经承担了其L3 系统的责任，前提是该系统按照预期使用。但是，监管机构、汽车制造商和保险公司还有许多细节需要解决。
There are other big issues to contend with. Facing slower economic growth, XXX has to balance tech progress with job loss. In July a robotaxi collision with a pedestrian in the city of XXX set off debates about how taxi drivers will be affected. Then there are the troves of data that self-driving cars collect. The headwinds Chinese ev-makers face in entering big Western markets—including steep new tariffs from the eu and America—will only grow stronger for smart cars and connected technology. Though few China-made cars drive on American roads, the Biden administration proposed a ban on Chinese “connected-car” hardware and software on national-security grounds. President Trump must decide if that will happen.
还有其他一些重大问题需要解决。面对经济增长放缓，xxx在技术进步和失业之间取得平衡。今年 7 月，XXX市发生了一起无人驾驶出租车与行人相撞的事故，引发了关于出租车司机将受到何种影响的讨论。此外，自动驾驶汽车收集的大量数据也备受关注。中国电动汽车制造商在进入西方大型市场时面临着阻力，包括欧盟和美国征收的新关税，而对于智能汽车和互联技术来说，这种阻力只会越来越大。尽管美国道路上行驶的中国制造的汽车很少，但拜登政府以国家安全为由，提议禁止中国的“互联汽车”硬件和软件。特朗普总统必须决定是否会实施这一禁令。
Mr He wants to convince drivers that self-driving tech is as useful as Chatgpt and just as safe. But the stakes are much higher sitting behind the wheel.
何小鹏希望让驾驶员相信，自动驾驶技术与 ChatGPT 一样有用且安全。但坐在方向盘后面的风险要高得多。
